STAMFORD – As the notifications for Groundhog Day pop up in your reminders, it is likely Punxsutawney Phil isn't even going to want them to bring him out of his cozy little quarters underneath the Punxsutawney Library. The temperatures in the region have been and will continue to be in the single digits with below zero windchills right up until Spring Prediction Day on Monday, Feb. 2.
As a matter of fact, the weather is currently listed as hazardous, according to the National Weather Service.
Another cold night with wind chills from -5F to -15F degrees across the region was the forecast on Wednesday. It follows on the heels of a 12-inch snowstorm over last weekend and continued dangerously cold temperatures, which we haven't seen for the past four years. It advised to limit your time outside and if you must venture out, dress warmly and cover exposed skin.
The prediction up until Feb. 2 is: The continued Arctic blast will bring very cold temperatures and wind chills to the region. From all the research, there is another storm brewing for this weekend, but a lot is riding on what path it will take as a Nor'easter. Nor'easters can dump a lot of snow. For some, last weekend's 12 inches was plenty, while others were hoping for another 12 inches.
Monday is actually going to be balmy, by comparison to this week, topping out at 21 degrees F. The lows overnight will also be a bit warmer at 5 degrees F.
Punxsutawney Phil could see his shadow because the day is supposed to be partly sunny. The festivities will begin at 3 a.m.at Punxsutawney, PA.
So when will Spring begin? Whenever Mother Nature decides to give up her cold grip. Mother Nature doesn't follow the astronomical seasons, which are based on the position of the sun. She has her own patterns which can make seasons longer or shorter, milder or harsher, than those based on the sun.
The days are getting longer and Feb. 2 is the midway point of winter. You can look at it from the perspective of the glass is half empty or the glass is half full. We are on the side that is moving toward the Summer Solstice (June 21) which is the longest day of light, with more than 14 hours of daylight. When the groundhog sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter. If the groundhog doesn't see his shadow, spring will arrive early. We have had his prediction since Feb. 2, 1887 with the first groundhog day in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. It has grown to become a full day of special, light hearted events to celebrate the furry creature and his prediction. It is now a tourist destination in the middle of winter.
Since 1887, there have only been 20 early spring predictions and scientists say any prediction by a groundhog is a bunch of bunk. You can bet the groundhogs in Stamford, NY, will not burrow up through the snow to see if the sun is shining. The snow is not melting with single digit temperatures. The Stamford groundhog's instinct will keep him sound asleep below the frost line until there are some periods of warmer weather. Although I did see a groundhog roaming around in the snow a couple of years ago, it was a warm day and I think it was searching for some early spring grass, or perhaps a mate. They wake up in late February or March and they seek mates in March and April.
The reason for Groundhog Day, believe it or not is that it falls at the mid-point of winter or the Vernal Equinox, which began on Dec. 21 (six weeks ago). Groundhog Day is an event that has continued for 139 years, counting Monday. Twelve weeks isn't always enough time to get in all the wintery type weather that can take place, especially in the Northeast. The Spring Equinox falls on March 20 and there will be an even amount of daylight and dark, 12 hours and 12 hours. The same happens in the fall, Vernal Equinox on Sept. 22,
The seasonal lengths for the Northern Hemisphere are approximately 94 days of summer, 90 days of fall, 89 days of winter and 93 days of spring. So we have 8 more days of summer and spring than we do of winter and fall, according to The Farmers Almanac. If you are confused, it is attributed to the Earth's wobbly (elliptical) orbit. We get three months of each season, but Mother Nature doesn't always follow either the astrologic calendar or the meteorologic calendar.
The snowmobile races are set for Feb. 28 on mile hill in Stamford and snowmobile race enthusiasts are hoping for some good snow. They are stockpiling snow currently and if cold temperatures continue, they will hopefully have enough to have another successful meet.
The most recent snow has brought out the winter recreationers, to ski, to snowmobile, to snowshoe, to cross country ski and there is always sledding or tubing.
Groundhog Day will come and go on Monday in Punxsutawney, PA where there will be great tradition and revelry. Here, we hope the groundhogs all stay nestled in their underground homes until that first really warm day of weather, which is when most of us really think of spring. The snowdrops will appear, the crocus will poke through and "spring will have sprung". What day that will be is really unknown at this time, no matter what happens in Punxsutawney.
Happy Groundhog Day!