In this day and age, one would have to ask where does inflation start and where does it end? At first, you notice your local grocery raises prices, Sure, maybe a little bit here and a little bit there, but he has to raise those prices in order to pay for the electricity going up, cost of insurance, And don’t forget, the landlord wants his extra bit. So is this where inflation all started? I would doubt it. It seems to me, this would be just a small business owner trying to make his way in the world of retail.
So back to the original question, Where did inflation start? To start to find answers, we would have to go to the year 2020 when COVID-19 pandemic caused disruptions. Before COVID-19, the world was at its usual, with small disruptions to supply chain and labor shortages. Disruptions that would and could be corrected due to market rules. Mainly the rules of supply and demand, but this time the rules did not work as we were hit again and again with anomalies in the market. Unless you were there, you might not remember February 2021 when a deep freeze in Texas froze up natural gas wells and drove up demand for residential heating. Then in August 2021 hurricane Ida disturbed natural gas and fertilizer production in the southeast of the United States. International countries like China, Ukraine and Russia, and Europe would continue to disrupt markets around the world.
Even in America, the Mississippi river contributed to those price disruptions with record low water levels, limiting the amount of fertilizer that could be shipped by barge down the river. Well, this all sounds very real in today’s business world. One thing not mentioned usually, is the consolidation of companies in the fertilizer industry as a contributor. Since 1980, The number of fertilizer firms in the United States has fallen from 46 to 13.
Tariffs, consolidation, political action, and manipulation of the markets could very well play a huge role in this inflation curve. As the winter thaws, and spring gets close around the world, farmers start to order their fertilizer needs and come up against shortages and inflated prices. Credit lines that were stable years ago can no longer cover a farmer’s fields to pay for the needed fertilizer. Something‘s Gotta give and unfortunately it is. Natural gas prices, home heating oil are up and so goes the prices of fertilizer. Let’s hope everything balances out soon. Support your local farmers!
We hope that the rules of supply and demand kick in soon and help the worldwide farming industry.
April 14, 2026 Growing microgreens at home. Held at Cornell Coop Extension. Contact the CCE
May 1, 2026 11 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. The Institute for Rural Vitality welcomes its partner growers, producers and small businesses to the fourth annual Empire State Entrepreneur Expo. The theme of this Expo is Taste, Try and Buy! Don't miss this showcase of homegrown innovation and community spirit.
